Stock Commentary

21 Dec 2007 - Thank You Tony.

Trader-15 — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 07:56:47 +0000

Tony,

I would like to say a very big Thank You for the 13week course.

I had been struggling for many months with my trading when I registered for your 13 week course. I am so glad you taught us “how to fish” rather than just “how to catch a particular type of fish” in this course. Whilst there is a long and winding road ahead of me to trading success, I am more confident than ever that I can get there. ( hmm … The light at the end of the tunnel is not necessarily a train anymore… )

The following shows the difference your mentoring has made to my trading record thus far … and I will endeavour to improve on it

Your willingness to share your experience and knowledge candidly and freely is what I will remember most from the course.

I would also like to thank everyone in the class for making this an enjoyable experience with the many questions shared. Also, thanks to Jodi and Eric for your help over the last 13++ weeks.

Regards

Trader-15

PS. I am in the stsgrad Yahoo Group and you can all reach me via email there. I sure hope everyone will keep in touch.

19 Dec - Long FDS

Trader-15 — Thu, 20 Dec 2007 11:30:05 +0000

This is a first attempt finding an Intraday trade using the Gladiator Scan.

FDS penetrated the lower BB yesterday and stayed below it today. Around 10:30am, FDS was consolidating with support just below 57.25. Decided to enter as per plan below.

Status:

Stop triggered ~40 min into trade. Exited @57.18. Loss : 0.6%
Trade Closed.

Trade Plan

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HW 12-19-2007

Trader-16 — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 18:00:50 +0000

MA is bouncing from the 20MA and retrace 50% from the the gap on Nov. it seems to have an intraday support at around 204.

Entry: 204

Target: 212

Stop: 203.4

RR: 13

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Found JOYG from volcano scan. it gap up and trade higher with big volume. i am waiting for a pullback to 59 area

Entry:59

Target: 61

Stop: 58.8

RR: 10

“The New Stock Trader”

Trader-14 — Mon, 17 Dec 2007 14:37:53 +0000

The QQQQ trade of 2000 and the CTDC trade of 2007 are different in many respects, but they have one thing in common:

The buy point is near the low of the day on a late Friday afternoon.

So in both cases my question is: What was the risk management plan for the following Monday morning?

14 Dec - Long SOLF (Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd.)

Trader-15 — Mon, 17 Dec 2007 06:04:20 +0000

Praise to the Sun God “Ra” (or Apollo if you so wish …)

SOLF consolidated into a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart after a strong upward move. Today (coincidentally), the 5 min intraday chart also formed a triangle around 12.40 pm. I decided to scale-in.

My reservation about this setup : The candle with the largest range and volume on the daily chart is RED !

Trade Plan

What’s your “Average % return per Trade” ?

Trader-15 — Sat, 15 Dec 2007 21:31:00 +0000

Whilst reviewing my trading record, it become obvious that my average Win size (in % term) per successful trade was below 5%. I “re-created” the Tony Oz calculator in my spreadsheet and added a column showing the Profit Potential in % term.

This showed a fair percentage of my trade plans returning less than 5% profit when targets were met. See below:

So now, I avoid taking SWING trades if they don’t return more than 5% when target price is achieved . For intraday trades, I like to see about 3% before taking the trade. Hopefully, this will improve my Average % returns in the future.

PS. I read somewhere the other day …. ”Discipline over Conviction” … ahh… that’s what I need more of.

PS2.Whilst doing the calculator above, I got carried away and added fields for Comment, Scan, Duration and Date. This now form part of my Trading journal. If anyone is interested in this “form”, let me know and I will upload it. (It’s just an excel spreadsheet)

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WRT Comment #1; here’s the file

Click here for the TradePlanner-Calc file : tradeplanner-calc-v0-6.xls

Enjoy ! and do let me know if you find errors and/or have suggestions to make this better.

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21 Dec 2007

Here the updated file with some of Tony’s suggestions added. (See comments #3)

Click here for the TradePlanner-Calc file: tradeplanner-calc-v0-7a.xls

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HW Friday 12/14

Trader-16 — Fri, 14 Dec 2007 15:27:09 +0000

Get this from patriot scan.

NTRI is bouncing from the 50 MA. the 20 MA start to go up and the stock is already making higher low (i.e. change of trend). also usually NTRI is doing well after new year since many people want to lose weight and purchase the product.

Entry: 28.5

Target: 35

Stop: 27.5

RR: 6.5

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BEAV from volcano scan. it is breaking out of resistance at about 51.5 with strong volume. i will put this in my window and waiting for a pullback to 52. i think it can go to 60

Entry: 52

Target: 60

Stop: 49.9

RR: 3.6

Yahoo Group

Trader-11 — Fri, 14 Dec 2007 04:51:20 +0000

Have you created a Yahoo Group Trader 16? It is easy to do. If you haven’t let me know and I’ll do it.

“The Stock Trader”

Trader-14 — Thu, 13 Dec 2007 17:50:50 +0000

As we come close to the end of our class, it may be a good time to say “Thank You, Tony” for this 13-week-ride … and also for the incredibly valuable collection of trades in the book “The Stock Trader”.

I have just been re-reading this great book and would like to share some random thoughts, observations and personal preferences.

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1. The most profitable day was a “Reversal Day” - “you buy, when everybody hates it”, as Tony says - on Day 12 (04-04-2000):

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2. One of my two favourite “Pullback Swing” setups in this book is on Day 2 (03-21-2000):

The other one is PHCM on Day 14 (not shown).

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Great “Power Trader” setup is WAVX on Day 6 (03-27-2000):

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4. My favourite risk management example is on Day 13 (04-05-2000):

Special thanks for showing this one!

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5. Great examples for “Buying new Highs” successfully are QQQQs, CSCO, ORCL on Day 4 (03-23-2000).

6. My favourite “Breakout Trade” is YHOO on Day 2 (03-21-2000).

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7. Absolutely stunning: Buy the QQQQs Friday 4 p.m. with full margin, when the market looks like that - on Day 20 (04-14-2000):

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HW

Trader-16 — Thu, 13 Dec 2007 16:10:12 +0000

First, just wondering if Tony can create a yahoo group so all of his student (current and future) can keep in contact. just a thought…

anyway, i found GRMN from volcano and patriot this morning and was waiting for a good entry (stock is around 50 MA and seems to bounce) . with the market down this morning i finally have a good entry:

Entry: 102

Target: 110

Stop: 99.80

RR: 3.7